Polls: What do they mean and can we trust them?

Polls are a staple of election season, whether they’re asking who your preferred party or leader is, a lot of election coverage will include polls to gauge public opinion. 

What’s a poll? Sometimes also called an ‘opinion poll’ it’s essentially a survey of a group of people to find out what they think about election-related issues. This could be to find out what local issues are important to them, how they view the government, opposition or parties or which candidates they’re likely to vote for. 

But elections often prove polling can be a far cry from the public’s voting intentions. Outlets can also paint a skewed picture of the data they’re reporting from.

The below graphic from The Australian was widely circulated, not for the results, but the representation of them. 

Polling graphic published by The Australian in the lead up to the 2022 Federal Election.

It’s not shocking that this made waves, one of the largest media outlets in the country somehow cleared this to be published. Twitter and other social media platforms blew up, confused by how 41% could possibly be so much smaller than 43%. 

But unequal pie charts aside, should we give polls any real weight?  

The answer is yes and no. 

Polls can be a good way to get a picture of public opinion, particularly because media attention doesn’t always reflect the views of the public.  

But it’s important to remember they will always have a margin of error, which is generally around 3%.

That means is that if 52% of people polled responded to one option the real figure is anywhere from 49–55%.  

It’s a consideration we have to make for whoever is polling lower too.

48% with a 3% margin of error means the real figure could be anywhere from 51-45%, and while that’s still a lower range than their hypothetical opponent, there’s a lot of overlap, and it isn’t really enough to make a concrete call on an election. 

Because of this, changes or ‘swings’ of a few per cent probably don’t measure up to any real change in public opinion. The 2019 federal election is a perfect example of this. Polls were reporting 52-48 and 51-49 in favour of Labor calling it an election they couldn’t lose and, as it turns out, that wasn’t the case.  

The media will report on almost any change now that we’re really in election mode, so we’re left to look past the headlines. Is every reported ‘shocking’ poll result going to be as surprising or as important as it claims? It’s unlikely, so our attention is better directed toward the actual numbers, rather than the sensationalised headlines.  

While polling isn’t an exact science, data collected over months and years can illustrate trends in public opinion. Rather than just looking at the most recent results or disregarding them all together, direct your attention to any trends they may highlight. 

One set of polling numbers on their own really don’t tell us much, but we can look at where they sit in comparison to past polls. Is one party’s number going up over time? Are the polls coming back around the same each time? The more data we can look at and the more media news we can cut through the better.

Enrolling to vote

Please note: enrollment for the 2026 South Australian state and First Nations Voice to Parliament elections will close at 5pm on Friday 27 February.

Some key things to know:

1. Enrolment for state and federal elections is managed by the Australian Electoral Commission

2. If you have enroled for previous elections (this could be a state or federal election, or referendum), you don't need to enrol again.

3. If you've already enroled, it doesn't hurt to check your details to make sure they are correct.

4. If any of your details are incorrect (like if you’ve moved house), make sure to update them.

5. To verify your identity when enrolling you will need one of the following: Australian driver license number, Australian passport number, Medicare card details, Australian citizenship number or someone who is currently enrolled confirm your identity.

6. You can enrol to vote if you are 16 or 17, but you can only vote if you are 18.

Can young people change the outcomes of elections?

Each time an election comes around there’s a pretty good chance you’ll hear at least one person express that they don’t think their vote really matters. It’s not hard to feel disenfranchised by parties and government, particularly as a young person but your vote has the power to elect someone who you believe will represent you better.

Let’s look at the marginal seats going into the 2022 State Election as an example.

There were six marginal seats heading into the state election. These are seats that were won in the 2018 election by a small percentage of votes, often less votes than there are eligible non-voting young people in that electorate.

In the 2018 election the electorate of Newland, previously a Labor party seat, was won by Liberal Richard Harvey by only 27 votes, or 0.1% of the votes in that electorate. But Newland had an estimated 501 non-voting 18-24 year olds, more than enough votes to decide which way that seat could go.

Below are the six marginal electorates, the margin and the estimated number of non-voting 18-24 year olds in that electorate - in table and Tik Tok form: